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Monsoon likely to be ‘normal’ this year, says meteorological dept.
Why in news?
- India Meteorological Department (IMD) said mnsoon rains in India are likely to be “normal” this year.
- However, uncertainty over agency’s own assessment suggests a significant probability for rains falling in the ‘below normal’ category.
More in news
- Normal but just shy of below normal:(1) Monsoon rainfall this year is forecast to be 96% of the Long Period Average which is 89 cm a 50year average of India’s monsoon rains.(2) Strictly speaking, a 96% forecast is, in the IMD lexicon, “near normal.” This is just shy of ‘below normal’ (90%-96% of LPA) rain.
- Fear of El Nino:(1) The El Nino, a cyclic warming of the Central and Eastern Pacific region, has historically been linked to a weakening of monsoon rain.(2) A temperature greater than 1 degree C for three months at a trot, is considered a ‘strong’ El Nino conditions (and threatening to the monsoon).(3) A 0.5C -1C rise is called ‘weak El Nino conditions.’(4) Currently the El Nino is 0.9 C.
Source
The hindu.