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Forecasting model predicts more hotter and rainy days
Why is it in News?
- India’s forecasting model visualized that subcontinent will witness increase in rainfalls and draughts
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- India’s first ever national forecast on the impact of global warming on the subcontinent
- Model is developed by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune.
- These predictions will be part of the next report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
- From 1986-2015, the hottest day and coldest night have warmed 0.63°C and 0.4°C, respectively
- Report – compared to reference period of 1976-2005.
(1) By end of 21st century – hottest and coldest day - projected to rise by approx 4.7°C and 5.5°C, respectively,
(2) Above are hypothetical predictions if no steps taken to control GHG emissions (Also called as RCP8.5)
(3) frequencies of future warm days and warm nights – may rise by 55% and 70% resp.
(4) By end of 21st century – Summer hot waves to be increased 3-4 times
(5) Recognized increase in aerosols due to fossil fuel burning, fertiliser use and natural processes
- Role of aerosols
(1) absorb sunlight
(2) reduce to some extent the heating of the land and ocean surface due to global warming
(3) also promote clouding and increased intense rainfall over smaller areas